Forecasting employment : The role of forward-looking behaviour

Manufacturing output per head rose at an unprecedented rate in the UK in 1981/2, and conventional econometric relationships failed to forecast the associated falls in employment. In this paper we estimate manufacturing employment equations in which output expectations play a central role. These compare fabourably with alternative models, and are able to predict most of the large falls in employment over this period.     

Determinants of Entry in Turkish Manufacturing Industries

The entry of new firms into markets plays an important role in efficient resource allocation and evolution for long term economic growth. Employing dynamic panel data techniques, this paper investigates entry behavior in 66 four-digit Turkish manufacturing industries for the 1993–1999 period. The results of this paper suggest that potential entrants observe the market before the entry takes place; entry is, in general, a follow-up process; and incumbent firms seem to collude to prevent entry in Turkish manufacturing industries. In addition, the real interest rate appears to be a very important determinant of entry decision.     

Does social capital determine innovation? To what extent?

This paper deals with two questions: Does social capital determine innovation in manufacturing firms? If it is the case, to what extent? To deal with these questions, we review the literature on innovation in order to see how social capital came to be added to the other forms of capital as an explanatory variable of innovation. In doing so, we have been led to follow the dominating view of the literature on social capital and innovation which claims that social capital cannot be captured through a single indicator, but that it actually takes many different forms that must be accounted for. Therefore, to the traditional explanatory variables of innovation, we have added five forms of structural social capital (business network assets, information network assets, research network assets, participation assets, and relational assets) and one form of cognitive social capital (reciprocal trust). Based on the survey data administered from April to June 2000 to 440 manufacturing firms of diverse industries in a region in the southwest of Montréal, we have found that 68.5% of the firms have developed product or process innovations during the 3 years preceding the survey. Assuming that innovation is not a discrete event but a complex process, we have modeled the decision to innovate as a two-stage decision-making process: in the first stage, the firms deal with the decision about whether to innovate or not whereas, at the second stage, the firms that have decided to innovate must make a decision about the degree of radicalness of the innovation to undertake. In a context where empirical investigations regarding the relations between social capital and innovation are still scanty, this paper makes contributions to the advancement of knowledge in providing new evidence regarding the impact and the extent of social capital on innovation at the two decision-making stages considered in this study. Regarding the decision to innovate or not that firms must initially make, we have provided strong evidence that diverse forms of social capital influence this decision and, more importantly, that marginal increases in social capital, especially in social capital taking the forms of participation assets and relational assets, contribute more than any other explanatory variable to increase the likelihood of innovation of firms. As for the decision to be made at the second stage concerning the magnitude of radicalness to bring in the development of new product or process innovations, this paper contributes to the advancement of knowledge by supplying the strongest evidence that diverse forms of social capital determine the radicalness of innovation, and more importantly, that social capital taking the form of research network assets contributes more than any other explanatory variable to explain the radicalness of innovation. The second variable that exerts the strongest impact on the radicalness of innovation is the number of different advanced technologies employed by firms for production.     

新疆兵团加工制造业发展研究

加工制造业是工业化的主导力量,是兵团工业的主体。大力发展加工制造业有利于实施优势资源转换战略,加快兵团农业产业化和工业化进程,推动兵团经济发展水平。本文通过对兵团加工制造业发展状况的评价,找出制约其加快发展的主要问题,并提出加快兵团经济发展的对策建议。     

环境规制对制造业绿色转型的影响机制及实证研究

制造业绿色转型是大势所趋，环境规制作为实现环境效益的重要手段，其如何影响制造业绿色转型值得探讨。在阐述环境规制对制造业绿色转型直接影响和间接影响机制的基础上，使用2005—2017年中国（内地）省级面板数据，采用基于EBM-GML模型计算得出的绿色全要素生产率衡量中国制造业绿色转型程度，进而建立固定效应面板模型检验异质性环境规制对制造业绿色转型的影响。结果表明：我国制造业绿色转型程度整体保持上升趋势，增长速度呈现出明显阶段性特征。环境规制对制造业绿色转型具有非线性影响，命令控制型环境规制和自愿参与型环境规制超过一定限度后能直接加快制造业绿色转型进程，市场激励型环境规制的直接影响则不显著；环境规制能够通过技术创新、外商直接投资、产业结构间接促进制造业绿色转型，产业集聚的影响则不显著；市场激励型环境规制能够通过间接效应影响制造业绿色转型。     

网络嵌入性、知识搜索与企业创新能力关系研究——基于江苏先进制造业集群的实证检验

网络嵌入性是影响企业创新的重要因素。在研究网络嵌入性对企业创新能力影响机理的基础上，进一步探究知识搜索条件下网络嵌入性对企业创新能力的作用。依据224份江苏省先进制造业集群企业数据，运用“网络嵌入性－知识搜索－企业创新能力”模型进行实证分析，研究结果表明：网络嵌入性和知识搜索能力越强，企业创新能力越强；网络嵌入性提高对知识搜索起促进作用；利用型知识搜索在网络嵌入性与企业创新能力之间起中介作用。因此，企业要不断调整在集群网络中的位置，提高知识搜索能力尤其是利用型知识搜索能力，实现集群内资源优势互补，提高企业创新能力。     

Relationship learning from organizational knowledge stores

This study examines the effect of relationship learning between customers and suppliers on relational knowledge stores and the moderating role of dyadic trust. The results reveal that relationship-learning activities between customers and suppliers are positive in managing customers' relational knowledge stores, comprising those of interactive, functional, environmental, and interpersonal knowledge. Trust has no moderating effect on the relationship between relationship learning and environmental knowledge stores; while, in contrast, greater levels of trust will advance relationship learning at an escalating rate and trust accordingly plays a moderating role on the other three knowledge stores. The positive effects of relationship learning on interactive, functional, and interpersonal knowledge stores escalate when the level of trust is medium; the effects decreases under conditions of high or low trust. This study confirms the positive relationship between relationship learning and relational knowledge stores and further reveals the threshold effect of trust.     

生产性服务业空间集聚与制造业效率提升——基于空间外溢效应的实证研究

本文利用2003—2009年247个城市样本数据,实证检验了我国城市生产性服务业空间集聚对制造业效率的空间外溢效应。结果表明,生产性服务业空间集聚不仅能够提升本地区制造业效率,且能够通过空间外溢效应提升周边地区制造业效率,空间外溢系数达到了0.864。生产性服务业空间集聚会通过竞争效应、专业化效应以及外部性等途径降低制造业交易成本,进而提高制造业效率。鉴于此,政府应支持生产性服务业空间集聚,突破影响空间外溢效应区域边界的自然条件和制度约束,加大人力资本、交通基础设施等方面的积累和投入,促进生产性服务业对制造业效率空间溢出效应的有效发挥。     

双边贸易的本地市场效应——基于东亚地区制造业部门的实证研究

本文基于2000-2006年东亚地区主要经济体间的双边贸易数据,研究并检验了该地区制造业部门双边贸易的本地市场效应。结果发现:东亚地区制造业部门的双边贸易整体上并不存在本地市场效应,只有个别行业表现出了显著的本地市场效应;而由相对要素禀赋条件和人均GDP所决定的传统比较优势因素对该地区制造业贸易模式的决定和影响仍是非常重要;此外,我们还发现劳动密集型产品是东亚地区制造业部门双边贸易的主要产品,必需品又是其中的主导消费部门。     

中国生产性服务业FDI影响因素实证研究

本文采用动态面板数据分析方法,利用我国20个省市2004-2010年的面板数据,分析我国生产性服务业FDI的影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)整体生产性服务业FDI与市场规模和市场增长潜力呈正向关系,但细分行业中信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业这两个行业并没有像预期的那样会促进其FDI的流入。(2)整体和细分生产性服务业FDI均明显具有追逐制造业FDI的倾向,并且与前期生产性服务业FDI具有正向关系。(3)劳动力工资水平与生产性服务业FDI流入呈正相关,这与绝大多数现有的研究尤其是关于制造业或服务业FDI影响因素的研究结论不同。(4)熟练工人、基础设施系统、政府干预和对外开放程度均与生产性服务业FDI有显著关系,是影响生产性服务业FDI的主要因素。